基于AHP-模糊综合评判法的煤与瓦斯突出预测研究

Coal and gas outburst prediction based on AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method

  • 摘要: 【目的】煤与瓦斯突出是煤矿生产过程中最大、最严重的安全事故之一,为准确预测煤与瓦斯突出的危险性程度,结合生产实际总结了影响煤与瓦斯突出的7种因素,【方法】运用层次分析法(AHP)确定了各影响因素的权重系数,同时,根据模糊综合评判法进行了量化以处理各影响因素中的定性指标,并建立基于AHP-模糊综合评判方法的预测模型。【结果】结果表明,影响煤与瓦斯突出的因素由大到小的排序为地质构造、瓦斯压力、地应力、瓦斯放散初速度、软分层煤体厚度、煤的坚固性系数、开采深度。【结论】运用模糊综合评判量化定性指标,得出预测矿井属于严重突出的危险性矿井,与现实情况保持了良好的一致性。

     

    Abstract: Coal and gas outburst is one of the most severe and hazardous safety incidents in coal mine production.To accurately predict the risk level of coal and gas outburst, this study, based on practical production conditions, summarizes 7 influential factors.The Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) is employed to determine the weight coefficients of these factors.Additionally, qualitative indicators among the influential factors are quantified using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, establishing a prediction model based on the AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.The results indicate that the ranking of factors influencing coal and gas outbursts, from most to least significant, is as follows: geological structure, gas pressure, ground stress, initial gas emission velocity, thickness of soft layered coal, coal strength coefficient, and mining depth.By quantifying qualitative indicators through fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, the predicted mine is classified as a high-risk mine for severe outbursts, demonstrating good consistency with actual conditions.

     

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